Last week, Philadelphia 3.0 announced our 2017 Municipal Elections Pool, inviting our audience of political junkies to test their prediction skills, and guess the outcome of the Democratic District Attorney and Controller primaries.
We asked readers to do four things: rank the Democratic District Attorney candidates by their expected vote totals, guess the margin of victory for the D.A. primary winner, guess the winner of the Controller primary and their margin of victory, and as a tiebreaker, guess the cumulative number of votes cast in the D.A. primary. A total of 47 people took the challenge, including many of the smartest operatives and observers we know in Philly politics.
The results of the primary, as we all know now, contained some surprises, but two participants came closest to getting it right: Hunter Hollis and Lauren Rinaldi.
We chose two winners based on two different criteria: earning the highest number of total points, and answering the most questions correctly. One point was assigned for each correct guess. So in the D.A. primary, for example, you could earn up to 7 points by guessing the correct rank for each of the seven candidates. Hollis was the only person to rank all the candidates correctly. Both winners will receive a $25 gift card to Reading Terminal Market.
A few fun facts from the pool:
- Only 13% of respondents predicted that both Larry Krasner and Rebecca Rhynhart would win. A little more than half the people who thought Butkovitz would win also thought he would win by more than 7 points.
- 63% predicted Larry Krasner would win. Joe Khan was the next most popular guess for first place. Interestingly, 42% of respondents correctly predicted that Khan would finish in second place.
- 28% correctly called the top 3 finishers for D.A. in order.
- 83% thought turnout was going to be lower than it was. The median guess was around 100,000--about what it was in the last primary in 2009. In the end it was closer to 160,000, which Rinaldi predicted. Only 8 people thought it was going to be higher.
- 97% thought the D.A. race would be decided by less than 6 points. While most people thought Krasner would win, almost nobody thought he would win by such a large margin. Rinaldi was the only person to correctly guess that Krasner would win by more than 10 points.